The Next Big Thing | Smart Device Design

In 1999, a group of software product developers made a habit of taking morning breaks to get away from their computers and to bounce ideas off of one another. They would walk over to a nearby coffee shop, share experiences, tell jokes and offer advice. On average, it was a 20-minute event that occurred three times a week. Recognizing that this activity was not only building camaraderie, but fostering creative thinking, their manager encouraged them and frequently participated himself.

Of the many topics discussed, two themes kept recurring… “What’s going to be the Next Big Thing?” and “How are we going to get rich with it?” Many ideas were suggested, and many were shot down. After going through this exercise several times, the group came up with the following list identifying characteristics of “The Next Big Thing…”

1) The idea would have to catch on like an out of control chain reaction. The first event would lead to other events, and these events would result in more events, and so on. Think of an avalanche triggered by rolling a single boulder down a hill.

2) The number of times those events would repeat could not be limited to a small number of potential customers, users or subscribers. In other words, the market had to be huge.

3) The person or group triggering the reaction would have to possess the unique capability to do so. Because most reactive environments aren’t limitless, they didn’t want to start a chain reaction that competitors might notice and then quickly duplicate for their own benefit. Consequently, the reaction had to happen so quickly that potential competitors could only obtain a negligible market share. Also, the time necessary to get involved could provide a barrier to delay competition.

4) The resources necessary to trigger the chain reaction had to be within grasp.
These guys didn’t have lots of resources. So they needed an idea they could execute without giving away large portions of the opportunity to investors or service providers.

5) The cost to trigger the first event had to be negligible compared to the expected gains.

6) The probability of success had to be reasonable.

7) The plan had to be simple and innovative.

Today, these product developers would probably all agree that having a great idea is only part of the equation. Along with having a great idea, an excellent plan is required, and the plan must be executed with precision. The right team is also needed. This team must have the right skills and a great deal of passion. Otherwise, the team will not be able to move quickly enough. This isn’t to say that the list of “next big thing” characteristics was wrong. Those characteristics are still needed, but those are only the characteristics of the next big idea. Those aren’t the characteristics of the plan and team that are going to make it happen.

A number of friends from the original group have stayed in touch for years. Three have started small businesses. Although one of these businesses was significantly more successful than the others, none of the start-ups hit the spot as far as greatly exceeding the founders’ wildest dreams. Nonetheless, they did OK. So, the friends still get together from time to time, and this is what they talk about now…

“What’s going to be the Next Big Thing?” and “How are we going to get rich with it?”

http://www.netchime.com